The reality of relentless inflation and a Federal Reserve prepared to respond in kind drove all interest rates higher last week. Fed Chair Powell stated that nothing prevents the Fed from increasing its rates by 0.50%. While factually accurate, it has been more than 20 years since we’ve seen a half-point move by the Fed. Some analysts are even suggesting that the Fed might be forced to increase rates by 0.75% at the next meeting. Fortunately, the economy does appear to be firing on all cylinders, and the labor market continues to show signs of full employment.
After a rough week, this week could be another challenging week. Consumer Confidence, GDP, PCE Prices, the ISM Manufacturing Index, and the monthly employment numbers are all due this week. The market is biased to push rates higher, but if we finally get some inflation relief in the PCE data, rates may not move quite as aggressively as last week. The war in Ukraine could continue to provide some unpredictable influences in markets, creating both upward and downward pressure on rates. - Shea Oliver, MyProNewsletter
