Mortgage rates took a break last week from their seemly relentless climb upward. Many factors came into play, contributing to the leveling. GDP took a surprising -1.4% downshift after last quarter’s hot 6.9%. Two more estimates are still due, and that number could be revised. Inflation data also showed some hints that inflation might be slowing. The core reading of the PCE came in lower than expected. Some analysts are also pointing to signs that inflation may have peaked. These data points are not definitive but certainly give some hope that runaway inflation could moderate in the coming months. One of the big questions now is will the Fed be able to slow inflation without causing a recession. This week, the Fed meets, and the market fully expects a half-point rate increase. Everyone will be scrutinizing the Policy Statement and listening intently to the after-meeting press conference. If the Fed hints that it sees inflation beginning to moderate, rates are still likely to climb, but the rate of increase may dramatically slow. An OPEC meeting later in the week could be a wild card to watch. -Shea Oliver, MyProNewsletter
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